International Multilingual Journal of Contemporary Research

Determinants Des Cycles D’affaires Au Congo
Par Okiemy Michel

Abstract
The aim of business theory is to identify the cause of business cycles and outline the various propagation mechanisms through which, it produces cyclical fluctuation. The purpose of this paper is to study, by using theories of business cycle, coupled with econometrics model, such as, the “Markov Switching Regime Model”, the main sources of Congo business cycle from 1960 to 2014, as well as to increase our understanding of particular phases of expansion and crises that influenced economy after independence. As results, we found that, the probability of staying in expansion period is 0.95 for an average duration of 48 months, however, recession last for 21 months with the transition probability of 0.85. Furthermore, we found that, since 2014Q3, the Congolese economy reach the peak, which is the beginning of slowdown of the economy until now. Finally, the three variables: the GDP, the government spending, and household consumption are considered to be as determinants of business cycle for the Congo Brazzaville.

Full Text: PDF     DOI: 10.15640/imjcr.v3n2a11